The Bullet Point Brief July 29 -Aug 2

The global facts affecting your investments

Global Markets

Currencies v GBP

Commodities

Monday

  • Japan cuts growth forecasts on slowdown fears in export growth to 0.9% from January’s 1.3% figure.

  • Exporters in China report the weakest operating conditions for 3 years as hopes for an end to trade wars remain.

  • UK mortgage borrowing grew slightly in June, recovering after weakness in the run-up to the original March Brexit deadline.

  • Blackrock estimates that trading volumes of ETF’s rose in H1 of 2019 to $1.44tn, up 35% from last year.

  • Hong Kong’s property market, one of the most expensive in the world sees demand for office space drop by 40% and rents fall 1.3%.

  • Shares in the London Stock Exchange Group rise over 15% to a record high as its bid to buy Refinitiv Holdings for $27 bn buoys investors.

  • Sterling hits a 28-month low as no-deal Brexit worries are fuelled after Boris Johnson’s appointment as Prime Minister.

Tuesday

  • The Bank of Japan keeps monetary policy on hold signalling an aggressive response to weaknesses caused by overseas events.

  • BP reports a $2.3 billion Q2 profit, unchanged from the same time last year on lower oil prices.

  • Goldman Sachs raises its 2019 target for the S&P 500 to 24% for the year but lowers earnings estimates on economic weaknesses.

  • US consumers grew more confident than expected in July taking the Conference Board’s confidence index to its highest since November.

  • South Korea’s industrial output fell 2.9% in June ending two-months of positive results.

  • Mexican Q2 growth rose 0.1% to just escape a technical recession, putting pressure on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador after promises to end decades of disappointing growth. 

Wednesday

  • The eurozone’s economic growth halved in Q2 and inflation fell even with unemployment at an 11 year low.

  • Beijing fought back at Donald Trump calling it “meaningless” to pressure Beijing during trade talks, one day after the US president said China did not negotiate in good faith.

  • Lloyds Banking Group’s compensated mis-sold PPI customers over £20bn in H1 of 2019 hitting earnings.

  • The Aussie dollar strengthened after consumer price inflation rose 0.6% in Q2, higher than forecasts of 0.5%.

  • Samsung profits halved in Q2, down 55.61% from this time a year ago on falling memory chip prices.

  • Opec oil output hits and 8 year low in July as voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia fuelled losses from US sanctions on Iran.

  • Credit Suisse second-quarter net profit jumps 45%, beating expectations.

  • The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates 25bps with Fed Chairman Jay Powell calling it a “mid-cycle adjustment policy” that “wasn’t the beginning of a long series of rate cuts”, unnerving markets.  

Thursday

  • China’s manufacturing slowdown stabilised in July according to a private survey, although lingering worries over the US-China trade dispute remain. 

  • The Nikkei-Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for ASEAN countries fell in July to 49.5, staying below 50 to signify a contraction.

  • The Financial Conduct Authority announces plans to ban contingent charging on UK pension transfers to prevent £2bn a year of mis-selling and ‘clean up’ financial services.

  • Brazil’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in over a year by 50bps to 6%.

  • Ryanair is faces 900 job cuts, announcing it has 900 more pilots and cabin crew than required as a result of the Boeing 737 Max’s grounding.

Friday

  • The US announces a 10% tariff would be put on $300bn of further Chinese imports, rattling markets.

  • IAG, the owner of British Airways owner avoids any effect from Brexit as Q2 pre-tax profits rise 20%.

  • The US withdraws from a soviet era nuclear arms treaty with Russia after Moscow refuses to destroy new intermediate-range missiles.

  • Eurozone retail sales outpaced forecasts to rise 1.1% in June, the most since late 2017 to offset troubles in the industrial sector.

  • Brazilian state giant Petrobras posts a 350% year on year jump in net profits to a ‘historic record’ of $4.8bn in Q2 as a result of asset sales.

  • The US added 164,000 non-farm jobs and wages rose in July at a healthy 0.3%, rising to 3.2% from the previous year but with fewer hours for workers.

  • Bulgarian chief executive of the World Bank Kristalina Georgieva was picked as Europe's choice to be the new IMF chief.

The week ahead…

  • UK - Services PMI, retail sales monitor, Halifax HPI m/m, RICS house price balance, quarterly Index of Services, Prelim Business Investment, industrial production m/m, trade balance, construction output m/m, manufacturing m/m, prelim GDP q/q, GDP m/m.

  • Americas – Final Services PMI, Small Business Index, consumer credit m/m, unemployment claims, PPI, Federal budget balance, Canada PMI and employment data.

  • EU – Spanish, Italian, French and German Final Services PMI, German factory orders, German industrial production, French trade balance, ECB economic bulletin, German trade balance, French industrial production, French private payrolls.

  • Asia - Indonesia Q2 GDP, Taiwan July CPI, exports and trade balance, India RBI repo rate, June industrial production, China July forex reserves, trade balance and CPI, Malaysia June industrial production, July forex reserves, Australia trade balance and RBS rate decision,

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